SAO PAULO – Defaults should curb consumer credit in the coming months even with the drop in interest rates, according to the prediction of Serasa Experian. The indicator that measures the company’s prediction for lending in the six months ahead declined 0.4% in March, reaching the 100.1 level.

Serasa reiterated that default leads to greater selectivity in lending between financial institutions. Moreover, the rise in household debt decreases the space in the budget for the consumer to take on new debt.

According to Serasa’s analysis, the new lending for consumer credit should evolve throughout 2012, but at a slower pace than in 2011.

“The recent interest rate cuts announced by several financial institutions should not produce a significant acceleration of loans to individuals,” the company said in a statement, which notes that the default level is still high.

In the city of São Paulo, for example, the percentage of families with delinquent accounts reached 21.8% in April, its highest since September 2007, when it marked 23.5%, according to a survey of the Federation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (FecomercioSP), also published today.

With regard to companies, the picture is a little better. The indicator that measures the Serasa credit outlook for this segment increased 0.1% in March 2012, to 98.4.

Since the indicator predicts the movement of lending to six months in advance, its elevation indicates that credit to businesses should react more intensely  to the economic stimulus during the second half of this year (Translators note: government stimulus should kick in full gear for businesses in the second half).

“The expansion of fiscal incentives, the prospects for gradual improvement in the international financial picture, and the further reduction of the Selic rate should boost business demand for credit, especially during the second half of 2012,” says Serasa.

SAO PAULO – Sao Paulo
The percentage of families with delinquent accounts reached 21.8% in April, its highest since September 2007, when it registered 23.5%, according to the Survey of Consumer Debt and Default, of the Federation of Trade Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (FecomercioSP).

In the same period last year, 14.3% of households had debt in arrears. In March, this share was 18.5%.

Among consumers with accounts in arrears in April, 46.2% have delayed for more than 90 days, 19.2% have arrears up to 30 days and 33.1% of families are in arrears between 30 and 90 days.

On the positive side, the FecomercioSP research also showed that the number of families who will not be able to afford all or part of its debt fell 4.8% in March to 3.9% in April, which represents 140,800 families.

Moreover, the total number of people indebted (with accounts in arrears and paying on time) fell from 52.2% to 50.6% between March and April, which is equivalent to 1.81 million families. According to the organization, this drop is due largely to the benefits acquired at Christmas (Translator Note: Brazilians that earn a salary get an automatic bonus equal to one month at the end of the year). The vehicle financing makes up 10.2% of household debt. According to the Central Bank (BC), the level of defaults in this segment is 5.52%, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000.

Debt Profile

In April, 23.1% of São Paulo said they owed debts with payments scheduled for more than one year, 52.9% from three to twelve months and 20.6% for less than three months. The portion of families with monthly debt service between 11% and 50% of their income came in at 56.9%. Another 22.3% committed less than 10% of the family income and 17.2% committed more than 50%. (Translator’s note: 17.2% of families are paying more than 50% of their income to service debt – that is a big number!).

The principal means used to incur debt remains the credit card; 76.2% of São Paulo have some debt due to purchases paid in this form. The percent of debt incurred through payment booklets fell from 28.2% to 15.2%, behind the personal credit, the second most common form of debt, which stood at 19.6%.

Guido Mantega, o Ministro da Fazenda, tem a responsabilidade por executar este mandato.   Achamos que esta estratégia já está interferindo nos mercados de crédito no Brasil.  O comportamento do crédito nestes mercados tornou-se mais oculto ao passo que os bancos públicos continuam a emprestar dinheiro diante de uma economia lenta e uma inadimplência maior.  Sendo que o alvo público é baixar os spreads, o governo federal está usando os bancos públicos às margens para apoiar a economia e ajudar os bancos a limpar os balanços deles.

O nível de inadimplência nos bancos de dados do Banco Central está subindo para pessoa fisica ao passo que o nível está caindo para pessoa jurídica.  Os dados da agência Serasa Experian, por sua vez, mostram que o nível de inadimplência está subindo muito e já ultrapassou os níveis piores de 2008 e de 2009.  Todas as peças neste quebra-cabeça ainda não se juntaram, mas parece que os bancos públicos estejam absorvendo os créditos pobres dos bancos privados.

Vemos oportunidades para o mercado dos FIDCs neste cenário, especialmente para os FIDCs lastreados no crédito das micro e pequenas empresas.     Percebemos que os bancos públicos não têm os balanços para financiar o mercado inteiro, porém terão balanços suficientes para forçar os bancos privados a fugir do mercado das pequenas empresas.  Isso deixará este mercado sem financiamento e fornecer muitas oportunidades para os investidors nos FIDCs.

PIB e Produção Industrial são Fatores Chaves

O crescimento do PIB e Produção Industrial tem decepcionado os economistas por quase um ano.  (Gráfico 1).  Não houve nenhum sinal de que a economia brasileira já tenha caído completamente.  Isso é importante, pois não antevemos uma melhoria no desempenho do crédito antes de uma melhoria na economia.  Em todas as recessões nos últimos dez anos o nível de inadimplência piorou por mais seis meses.  (Gráfico 2)

Gráfico 1

Gráfico 2

Desempenho de Inadimplência

Como os dados da economia estão piorando e estão abaixo das previsões, nós teríamos expectativas baixas para os níveis da inadimplência e falência.  Contudo, os dados do Banco Central mostram que o nível de indimplência para pessoas físicas tem subido lentamente e o nível para pessoas jurídicas tem caído um pouco. (Gráfico 3)

Gráfico 3

Uma Economia Melhor no Futuro

Para ser justo, há muitos motivos para esperar uma melhoria no desempenho do crédito do Brasil em um futuro próximo.   Em uma entrevista no jornal Estado de São Paulo (18 de março de 2012), Murilo Portugal, presidente da Federação Brasileira de Bancos (Febraban) apontou que o Cupom tinha baixado a taxa Selic 2,75% desde agosto 2011 e o Cupom já diz que vai baixar a taxa até 9,0%.  Além disso, o governo aumentou o salário mínimo 14% e tem introduzido outras medidas macroprudenciais.  Apesar dessas medidas, ele está antevendo a melhoria no nível da inadimplência no final de 2012.

Nas manchetes da Serasa Experian de 15 de março de 2012, estava escrito “ Pior momento para inadimplência dos consumidores fica para trás.” A Serasa Experian também mencionou os fatores que Sr. Portugal discutiu e explicou.  O “Indicador  Serasa Experian de Perspectiva – Inadimplência do  Consumidor” caiu 1,3% em janeiro 2012 e atingiu 99,7 pontos. Baseado na metodologia usada para construção, o indicador tem a tendência de prever os movimentos cíclicos à frente. Isto quer dizer que a Serasa Experian também está esperando que os níveis de pagamentos atrasados caiam no segundo bimestre. Ao mesmo tempo, os dados próprios da Serasa Experian não colaboram completamente com o modelo.

Evidencias Indisputáveis

Uma prova inalterável sobre os empréstimos inadimplentes mostra que o problema com o crédito está historicamente em altos níveis. Este dado é o Indicador de Inadimplência do Consumidor da Serasa Experian. Por quê Os dados do Serasa Experian mostram o registro atual de empréstimos inadimplentes nos cartórios.  A outra fonte desses dados, o banco de dados do BCB mostra que as provisões contáveis que companhias financeiras têm que reservar para cumprir com os regulamentos do BCB. Os dados do BCB mostram provisões contáveis, a Serasa Experian mede a decisão genuína do credor de classificar um empréstimo como inadimplente e o começo do processo de falência, que é o registro de uma dívida no cartório.

No primeiro semestre de 2010, o Indicador de Inadimplência do Consumidor da Serasa Experian  alcançou o pior nível visto na crise global de 2008/2009. O Indicador de Inadimplência das Empresas ultrapassou os piores níveis em 2009 no começo de 2011 e continua a crescer em 2012. O Indicador de  Inadimplência do Consumidor mostrou sinais de declínio do pico de 2011, mas o nível continua elevado em 2012.

Gráfico 4

Além disso, o atual número de Falências Requeridas e Falências Deferidas alcançou alto nível,  igual a 2008/2009. Há muitos sinais de problemas não resolvidos. Na edição de 23 de março de 2012 do Valor Econômico, Silvia Rosa escreveu que havia 595 pedidos de recuperação judicial para os 12 meses completados em fevereiro 2012. Isso foi 29% a mais que o período anterior. Com o crescimento de falências temos visto muitos fundos de abutres com operações no Brasil para reestruturar empresas. No final não vemos uma história de crédito saudável no sistema brasileiro.

A Presidente Dilma Rousseff publicou abertamente que ela quer usar os bancos públicos do Brasil para baixar os “spreads”.  No gráfico 6, podemos ver que os bancos públicos têm obedecido. O débito com bancos públicos, como uma porcentagem de PIB, tem crescido 17,7% desde janeiro 2010.  Ao passo que o débito com os bancos privados, como uma porcentagem de PIB, tem crescido somente 8,3% no mesmo período.

Gráfico 5

Gráfico 6

Os bancos privados estão preocupados e com razão.  Este crescimento está vindo de padrões frouxos na emissão de crédito. Nossa conclusão é a de que as ações do Brasil já começaram a interferir nos mercados de créditos. Na ediçao de 2 de marco de 2012 do DCI, a Tendências Consultoria observa que um total de crédito inadimplente mais do que 60 dias  significa R$139,2 bilhões, contudo, as operações de crédito que foram canceladas somam R$180 bilhões.

Em outras palavras, os bancos privados estão cancelando linhas de crédito e deixando as empresas sem financiamento.  Isso é o que acontece quando os spreads não estão aumentando e a inadimplência está no auge. No dia 23 de marco de 2012, o valor das ações do Banco do Brasil caíram 3,24% e os rumores do mercado atribuíram a queda às preocupações com os possíveis problemas na carteira de crédito.

Gráfico 7

O Valor Econômico também publicou uma história sobre as restrições que os empréstimos de débitos do consumidor têm sobre orçamentos familiares. (Arícia Martins, Aumento das dívidas deve retirar fôlego do consumidor, março de 23 de 2012.) A jornalista citou alguns economistas que estavam preocupados sobre o nível de débito do consumidor. Um caso de preocupação maior, sobre o qual nós escrevemos no terceiro trimestre do ano passado, na nossa edição de créditos, é que o débito continua a crescer para empréstimos já emitidos. Sergio Vale, economista na MB Associados discute esse problema no artigo do Martin. Ele concluiu que orçamentos familiares estão sendo pressionados  da mesma forma por pagamentos para o principal como para os juros. Isso indica que o serviço de débito não é suficiente para amortizar o principal e os pagamentos precisarão aumentar para haver reduções verdadeiras no débito do consumidor.

Considere outros fatos:

-       O Fundo de Garantia de Tempo de Serviço  do Brasil, FGTS, comprou 30% de todas as hipotecas securitizadas que foram emitidas no Brasil em 2011.

-       Há uma pressão do governo para forçar a carteira de investimento público a tirar os investimentos com retornos baseados no SELIC e aplicar nos investimentos vinculados à inflação.

Oportunidade para os FIDCs e outras finanças estruturadas no Brasil

O Brasil tem decidido todas as opções para amortecer a economia fraca e prevenir uma recessão. É muito difícil prever se o Brasil será bem sucedido com este esforço.  As probabilidades estão contra, mas o Brasil já confrontou este tipo de problema antes, algumas vezes fracassou completamente.

Nós duvidamos que o governo tenha o balanço necessário para salvar a economia brasileira com a diminuição dos spreads bancários no mercado financeiro brasileiro. No entanto, temos certeza de que o governo tem o balanço necessário para esmagar o mercado e causar distorções no processo de alocação de crédito.

Os bancos não terão muito incentivo para servir pequenas e médias empresas se eles forem forçados a apertar os “spreads” sem nenhum melhoramento econômico sob perspectiva, e terão grandes probabilidades de perdas significantes. Se os bancos não puderem ampliar os “spreads” para receber compensação para os grandes riscos, eles pararão de fazer empréstimos para empresas menores e também para empresas de risco.

Pessoas Físicas e Pessoas Jurídicas têm usado constantemente estruturas financeiras para preencher esta lacuna. Estruturas financeiras, como os FIDCs, oferecem soluções flexíveis para ajudar o credor a gerenciar os riscos de crédito.  Alguns bancos já têm empréstimos estruturados  como FIDCs para reduzir o risco de inadimplência da “colateralização”. O risco de crédito continuará a crescer e piorará o ambiente econômico. Investidores com experiência para oferecer estruturas criativas deveriam receber um retorno gratificante neste mercado.

Vernon Budinger, Principal

Latin America Structured Finance Advisors, LLC

vbudinger@latamsfc.com

Jason Smith, Portfolio Manager

Latin America Structured Finance Advisors, LLC

jsmith@latamsfc.com

• Central Bank of Brazil surprises markets and lowers SELIC 50 basis points.
• Banks increase reserves and provisions for bad debt to record levels.
• FGC Helps to Sanitize the Financial System

What are the implications for investors?  New-issue investors need to evaluate carefully the issuing entity’s portfolio for the quality of debt underwriting and the entity’s ability to service the loans.  Investors that currently hold FIDCs need to monitor the credit portfolio’s performance carefully.

We see weakness in consumer loans issued by banks and finance companies and we have no doubt that this is the single thread that unites some of the otherwise contradictory economic news in the Brazilian press. 
Both the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Fundo Garantidor de Crédito (Credit Guarantee Fund, FGC) have been working behind the scenes to contain the growing problems from NPLs and to prevent a full blown credit crisis in Brazil.

FIDCs do not have this government protection.  FIDC credit quality has deteriorated since the beginning of the year according to data we pulled from Orbis, a structured finance database and news service from Uqbar.  Of the 250 FIDCs in the Orbis system with data for the last seven months, 77% have seen increases in provisions for bad debt (PDD – Provisões Devedores Duvidosos).   PDD increased more than 100% since the beginning of the year in 29 FIDCs.  Fifteen of those deals were either multiple market or multiple segment deals.  Due to lack of transparency in the Brazilian ABS market, it is better to look directly at the credit markets themselves to understand these trends.

Putting Together Pieces to Understand Brazil’s Credit Markets

The August 30 meeting of the COPOM, the monetary committee for Brazil’s central bank (BCB), dramatically altered the general perception of the economic picture in Brazil when they cut SELIC by 50 basis points.  Most analysts were caught by surprise; however, our calculations show that the market had been forecasting approximately an 80% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut on August 29.   The COPOM has since been criticized from many corners for lowering the rate even though Brazilian inflation has not yet retreated.

The market now expects the COPOM to cut SELIC to about 10.25% by June 2012, while analysts polled by the BCB survey are divided between 10.50% and 10.75% as the low, as you can see in the first graph below.  Both the market and economists now view the BCB as very accommodative.  The BCB conveniently cites the growing problems in Europe as the motive for cutting rates.  We don’t believe that’s their main motivation.  In our view, the BCB and the Brazilian Government are more worried about the growing problems with consumer credit at home and about protecting the banking system.   This explains why the BCB cut rates at the risk of losing control of inflation and some credibility with the international financial community.

We have been warning that the Brazilian financial system is showing signs of strain due to the extraordinarily high growth in consumer credit balances and the high level of consumer NPLs since May 2011.  Government’s efforts to rein in the growth this market have failed.  We also pointed to the evidence that payments on consumer loans are not sufficiently large enough to amortize the principal. As a result loan balances continue to grow in spite of declining issuance (See our Second Quarter Review).

The Brazilian press continues to point to the overall low levels of non-performing loans and occasional reductions in the levels of non-performing loans.  We put these reports in the basket labeled “misleading statistics.” As with FIDCs, the overall numbers in the financial system are obscuring some important developments in the sub-sectors.  Most importantly, there is a growing number of NPLs on the consumer portfolios of both banks and non-bank finance companies.

Smaller Brazilian banks have encountered difficulties in managing their balance sheets since the 2008 global credit crisis.  These banks find it difficult to sell parts of their credit portfolios to the larger banks because the large banks have tightened up their credit underwriting standards, especially after the Banco PanAmericano scandal.  The graph below indicates two dangerous trends.  First, NPLs continue to run much higher than 2008/2009.  Second, the lagged but sudden increase in NPLs in bank portfolios indicates that the problems in consumer credit portfolios for non-bank finance operations seem to be affecting or “contaminating” the bank consumer credit portfolios.

Estado de São Paulo announced in a September 15 edition that the Fundo Garantidor de Créditos (FGC) had realized “sanitation operations” of around R$7.5 billion this year to clean up problems with some medium and small sized banks.    The most recent operation transferred Banco Matone to Grupo JBS, thanks to support of R$850 million from the FGC.  The other big “sanitizing operation” for 2011 was a R$1.5 billion package help BMG absorb Banco Shahin.  That leaves roughly R$5 billion more in other operations that have been used to shore up other banks.  FGC currently has resources of a little more than R$26.8 billion.  This means that the fund has spent about 25% to 33% of its resources to prop up the financial system this year.

It is clear that the BCB and the Brazilian government are trying to avoid a panic.  An editorial in Estado de São Paulo points out that the FGV’s operations have two advantages promoted by Brazil’s Central Bank:  they don’t involve public money and they are discreet.  The operation’s discretion prevents depositors from panicking about the financial health of other banks.    The editorial points out that this helps reduce systemic risk in the Brazilian financial system.

At the end of August we produced a report that analyzed the recent actions taken by Brazilian banks to shore up reserves and increase provisions for non-performing loans.  (See “At What Height Does A Bank Seawall Protect From a Credit Tsunami?”)  The biggest Brazilian private and government banks have been increasing loan loss provisions and reserves to almost unheard of levels.  Caixa Econômica Federal is provisioning 300% of NPLs.   Given that banks recover on average 30% to 40% of bad debt, with the range spanning from 5% to 60% of the value of loan, a provision of 300% of NPLs seems like overkill unless the bank knows something that the public doesn’t.  Brazilian banks execute “renegotiation operations” that banks in other countries would normally consider bridge loans for defaults.  The BCB would know if banks are entering into these types of agreements frequently.

Summarizing the condition of the FIDC Market

This brings us to the FIDC market in Brazil.  The statistics are deceptively reassuring.  As the graph below demonstrates, the overall PDD level has been fairly stable.  It appears that the problems in the consumer credit market have not yet affected FIDCs in general.  As with the banking system, we believe the overall statistics are hiding the problems.  Statisticians often quote the paradox of a person drowning in a river that is on average 5 inches deep.   We believe that the distributions are skewed and that the averages are hiding problems.

We used data from Orbis to calculate the percent change PDD from January to July 2011 and plotted the data in the histogram in the fourth graph below.  We took out all of the deals with extraordinary changes over 500% to error on the side of caution in our calculations.  PDD increased by more than 25% in more than 47.6% of the FIDCs over this period, even with our conservative approach.

Part of this artificial stability stems from the issuer’s ability (and common practice) to buy back loans that are more than 90 days past due.  However, the CVM has passed new rules (Instruction 489) that will severely limit the balance sheet options for issuers who repurchase substantial amounts bad loans from FIDC credit portfolios.  In addition, the banks will not have the balance sheets to continue this practice if the credit markets continue to deteriorate.   We believe this picture will worsen as the economy slows down more.

As stated in the opening, new issue investors need to evaluate carefully the issuing entity’s portfolio for the quality of debt underwriting and the entity’s ability to service the loans.  Investors that currently hold FIDCs need to monitor the credit portfolio’s performance carefully for the near future.

As bank portfolios deteriorate in quality and larger banks rein in issues, smaller banks will have more incentive to sell loans into FIDCs. Investors in FIDCs backed by short term credit, such as factoring receivables, need to be especially vigilant.  These revolving FIDCs experience large turnover and the credit quality can drop dramatically in one month. Any sudden jumps in PDD or sharp increases in late payments (Créditos Vencidos e Não Pagos – CVNP) should be investigated quickly.   This information can be found on the Informe Mensal on the CVM website.

According to the CVM website, 23 FIIs with a total value of R$561 million where registered in 2008. In 2010, 39 FIIs were registered with a total value of R$9.7 billion. As of August 2011, 26 FIIs have been registered with a value of R$4.8 billion versus 16 FIIs in the same period of 2010 with a value of R$2 billion. In 2008 there were R$4.7 billion CRIs issued, R$3.8 billion in 2009, and R$8.53 billion in 2010, almost twice as high as the previous record in 2008. (CVM data)

The Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM – the Brazilian equivalent of the SEC) had restricted FII to investments in pure real estate. The rules were relaxed in 2009 to allow FIIs to buy other types of real estate securities, such as CRIs, as well as the pure real estate. The new regulations also allowed CRI-backed FIIs to pass-through the tax advantages embedded in CRIs. This was one of the main factors in the growth in the market for FIIs.

However, there are recent signs that the market is cooling off. The performance of the FII market has fallen in the last four months according to Uqbar (a Brazilian firm that tracks the FII market and provides data through its Orbis service). In 2010 the 22 most actively traded FIIs returned a capitalization weighted average of 21.2% (Data from Uqbar, LatAm Structured Finance calculation). Just the price appreciation of FIIs was 13.2% in 2010. In April 2011 the average 12 month price return was 16.5%, in May and June 14.6%, and dropped to 12.2% in July.

Like the market for FIIs, real estate in Brazil is experiencing some hiccups after increasing steadily over the last few years. On August 31, 2011, Estado de São Paulo reported that the unit sales in the city of São Paulo fell 31% in the first half of 2011 and fell 28% in the São Paulo metropolitan area. While the level of activity is cooling off some, the São Paulo real estate market is still seeing lots of activity with 80% of the listed property being sold in 6 months or less. However, the market makers warn that this level of activity can only be maintained with continued economic growth and the availability of credit.

http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/impresso,sinais-de-acomodacao-no-segmento-imobiliario,766321,0.htm

In a side article in the same edition, Ana Maria Castelo, an economist with Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), writes that Porto Alegre and Belo Horizonte also experienced weaker real estate sales. She notes that this slow down started before the growing global credit problems and arises from domestic factors. Demand in 2010 was overheated and credit expanded very rapidly. This increased building activity also drove up prices and construction costs increased 7.71% in the last twelve months. Castelo argues that this is still not a bubble because the growth is sustainable and that Brazilian real estate will continue to perform well despite these recent setbacks. “Prices may not increase as dramatically, but they will not fall. Buyers will become more cautious as the prices continue to increase and financing will be limited by the level of income.”

http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/impresso,nao-temos-bolha-o-mercado-vai-continuar-aquecido,766325,0.htm

The market for FIIs and CRIs in Brazil should be followed closely if the investor is planning on entering at these levels. The Brazilian economy is still growing but the growth is slowing dramatically. While delinquencies on real estate for business and residential purposes are at multi-years lows, Brazil is experiencing a bubble in the consumer credit markets and non-performing loans in this sector are rising rapidly. Banks are cutting back on credit and tightening their underwriting criteria. It is time to use some caution and look at the possibility of muted price gains for the foreseeable future in the Brazilian real estate market and the market for securities backed by real estate and real estate debt.

I recently was contacted by the founder of a risk management software company based in the United States, who was looking for an investor for his company pre-money.

Quoting from his email,

Our software is intended for the financial adviser as cutting-edge analytic support for better wealth planning decisions – pairing the adviser’s capabilities and client relationships with a toolset that helps to assess the client’s current risk and return profile, examine new investment and cash planning decisions not just in the content of risk and reward but in light of probability of goal success, and finally to optimize investment plans and cash plans using our patent-pending methodology. Our software is able to measure risk and optimize the full suite of investment products and insurance products, including complex variable annuities. This is why the current commercial interest in our solution is the following:

- insurers see our tool as useful in helping to sell their products (particularly variable annuities) to skeptical clients. Without a toolset like ours (which does not exist in the market) they cannot easily show how, for example, a complex variable annuity can help a client raise their probability of successfully meeting their overall goals. All clients (and many advisers) see is a highly structured insurance contract with an even more complex fee schedule; we can help quantify the benefits during various scenarios and stress environments.

- we are in partnership discussions with a US-based wealth advisory service to distribute a SAAS-driven wealth planning service to independent financial advisers, using our web services interface which integrates our analytics with any in-house or commercial full service wealth planning software application

- we are in discussions with a world-class wealth manager, who would use the software in their private planning desks to help with more complex, structured analysis for high net worth clients

Moving all of these forward is the key reason we, as a pre-revenue start-up, are seeking a strategic acquisition / stake at this point in time – particularly if the acquirer has interest in entering these commercial segments to leverage and expand their existing business lines.

I have looked at the presentation relating to this company and their software/services, and it certainly looks promising. If you’re reading this and have some interest in acquiring a majority stake in this company, drop me an email (felix@felixsim.com). This definitely looks like a company to watch.

 The UAE  may not be seen as such an attractive place for the investment community at the moment, but it certainly still presents a lot of hidden investment opportunities (and investor pools). Real estate prices is at its lowest points in history, banks are beginning to provide credit, private equity funds are allocating investments to businesses with growth potential, and private investors are starting to flock into the UAE (primarily Dubai) from neighbouring countries including the sub-continent.

Like all emerging markets, the only way to be able to tap into these opportunities is to physically spend time in the country. Not surprisingly, the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) is enjoying the inward flow of financial institutions and investors into the Middle East. The DIFC arguably provides the best (and probably the only) legal and regulatory infrastructure to run a financial institution or family office in the Middle East. It is the only financial free zone in the Middle East with its own legal system and courts, and a regulator – the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DSFA) – which has become more mature and experienced in the last 6 years.

All financial services firms such as Hedge Fund managers, financial advisors and investment banks who wish to conduct business in the Dubai International Financial Centre MUST be authorised by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Before the DFSA can authorise a firm as an Authorised Firm, they need to be satisfied that the firm meets their Fit and Proper test, and is likely to do so on an ongoing basis. Generally, Fit and Proper means the ability to carry out a financial service competently, with honesty and integrity. Before 2010, firms that are looking to be authorised by the DFSA in order to provide financials services from within the DIFC have huge hurdles to cross, whether they were a regulated entity in another jurisdiction or not. The DFSA, being a forward-looking regulator, introduced a “Representative Office” license in the second quarter of 2010, and this changed the landscape of the DIFC significantly. Firms that are now regulated in what the DFSA calls “Recognised Jurisdictions” such as Singapore, Hong Kong, the UK, etc. are now able to apply for a Representative Office license, which effectively is a branch of the regulated parent.

This is a perfect license for firms regulated in other jurisdictions and are looking to expand their client base in the Middle East from the DIFC. Whilst a representative office is restricted to only market the products and services of its parent, and not allowed to take on clients, it is a valuable first step for most firms to start building their client base without too much regulatory (and economic) burden. The authorisation timeline for a Representative Office is also significantly shorter than that of a fully licensed firm, and there is also no requirement to hire any “Mandatory Functions” such as a full time Compliance Officer and a full time Finance Officer.

To know more about getting licensed in the DIFC and setting up your financial institution, please feel free to contact me.
Email: felix@felixsim.com
UAE: +971 56789 1863
Singapore/International: +65 9838 4560

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It has a global client base extending from the USA, Middle East, Europe, Asia and ANZ, and client types include both end-user businesses as well as other technology firms which outsource their client work to the Company. Its clientele includes major players in travel industry, financial institutions, educational institutions, and resellers

The business has a profitable operating history of over 2 years, employs 70 staff (including senior management, project managers and engineers), and has 25 clients on monthly retainer contracts together with a good pipeline of potential business. The turnover of the business last year was USD $1.3 million and this will increase to USD $2 million for the current based on existing contracted clients and prospects.

The proprietors of the Company now wish to offer for sale a meaningful equity stake in the Company. They would, however, also consider selling the entire business to a more substantial organization in a similar industry in which the existing client relationships could be maintained.

If you are interested in investing, please get in touch with me directly. My contact details are below.

With kind regards

Felix Sim
Managing Director

APACHE ADVISORS
Office: +971 (4) 305 0635
Mobile: +971 55 887 6168
Email: felix.sim@apacheadvisors.com
Skype: felixs.im
Website: www.apacheadvisors.com

Singapore investment fund Temasek Holdings has set up a new investment company called Seatown Holdings. According to the statement, Temasek’s senior managing director and chief strategist Charles Ong will be the chief executive of the new company. Mr Ong said Seatown is a global investment company, wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings. It is not immediately clear how Seatown’s mandate will be different from Temasek’s own investment role. Remember, Temasek’s investment mandate is to protect the monies of Singapore, including the pension monies (CPF) of its residents. Temasek set up Fullerton Fund Management a few years ago to manage 3rd party money. I suppose the real question to ask is how different would Seatown be from Fullerton Fund Management’s mandate. Or even, how different is it from GIC’s mandate? Some news reports say that in addition to investing the city-state’s own assets, Seatown will eventually open its doors to Singapore’s citizens, allowing them to co-invest with the sovereign fund.

I did some research and found a flowchart from this blog, where the author interpreted the money flow within this organisation. See the chart below (click on it for a larger version).

A spokesman said he had no further details beyond the statement. Temasek said it has seconded a small core team and is still in the process of building up the Seatown team. Earlier, Dow Jones reported that the new company will have an investment capital of around US$3 billion and would focus on investments in emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia.

Update: April 2011

It’s already doing deals. Seatown jumped in alongside its parent when the latter invested more than $600 million in convertible preferred shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp. of Oklahoma City. It also invested when Temasek bought shares in Chinese pork producer China Yurun Food Group Ltd. And the new fund firm is actively engaged in Asian debt markets, where its sheer size and ample dry powder make it one of the biggest investors in a region where other debt funds have less uninvested cash to play with. This plays to the strengths of Mr. Ahmad, a veteran of Credit Suisse Group and former hedge fund manager with a background in credit.

Seatown is the latest in a string of investment vehicles Temasek has helped bring into being. It provided about US$800 million in capital to Hopu Investment Management Co., making it the US$2.5 billion China-focused private equity firm’s largest investor. Hopu is run by Richard Ong, a former banker at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and brother to Charles Ong of Seatown, and Fang Fenglei, chairman of Goldman’s joint-venture securities firm in China. Charles was formerly Temasek’s chief strategist and, before that, its chief investment officer.

Mr. Israel said that while it’s still early, Temasek is satisfied with the results of Seatown’s investments. He said the aim is for Seatown to manage money for institutional investors in three to five years, with the possiblity of letting retail investors in possibly in eight to 10 years, after one or two market cycles have put the company to the test.

Update: August 2011

Charles Ong and Nasser Ahmad, co-chief executive officers of Seatown Holdings, are leaving the hedge fund set up by Singapore’s Temasek Holdings.